My friend is active in investing in the global stock market. 
He asked for my view about the expected hike in interest rate by the US Fed.
A few weeks ago, the market was expecting an increase of 0.5% each month for a few months. 
Recently, the market was now talking about a 0.75% or 1% increase in the interest rate. 
If the Fed is more aggressive, it will cause the stock market to collapse.

I personally believe that the Fed will stay with the earlier expectation of an increase of 0.5% at each monthly meeting. 
I do not think that the Fed will increase it to 0.75% or 1% as expected by some analysts.
If the Fed maintains the increase at 0.5%, the stock market might rally.

Why do I hold the view that the Fed will not be more aggressive in raising interest rate?

Here are my reasons:

a) The high inflation is caused mainly by supply chain disruptions.
b) A more aggressive hike in interest rate will not help to reduce the inflation rate. Instead, it will lead to a severe recession.

I hope that my prediction is correct. 

Tan Kin Lian