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Review of investment strategy
28 Jan 2023 (213 views)  

1. It is difficult to make investment decisions during a period of uncertainty.

2. Towards the end of 2022, it was clear that the global economy faced severe challenges, with the Ukraine conflict, disruption to supply chains, high inflation, high interest rate and a looming recession.

3. The conventional wisdom was to sell the stocks, take loss and wait for a better time to reinvest.

4. I took a contrarian view for the following reasons:

a) The stock prices had already fallen to reflect the negative prospects

b) Some stocks are grossly undervalued, while the companies remain profitable.

c) China was reopening its economy by relaxing its covid restrictions.

5. I remained heavily invested in China stocks and in Tesla stock (which had dropped 70% from its peak).

6. My invested stocks performed well during the past month. From a portfolio loss of $400,000 six month ago, it has now turned into a portfolio gain of nearly $400,000. (I would have missed this turnaround, if I had cut loss a few months ago.)

7. The investment climate will remain uncertain going forward. I do not like US stocks (apart from Tesla), as they are still overvalued.

8. I still hold a few US growth stocks that have dropped 80% in value and contributed to a loss of $300,000 USD. Fortunately, they have a strong cash position to last a few years. I will wait for their recovery.

9. A large portion of my portfolio is invested in China stocks with an average PE ratio of 6 times, and a dividend yield of 7%. They are undervalued. If the stock prices fall, I can collect the dividends.

Tan Kin Lian
 

Review of investment strategy
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1. It is difficult to make investment decisions during a period of uncertainty.

2. Towards the end of 2022, it was clear that the global economy faced severe challenges, with the Ukraine conflict, disruption to supply chains, high inflation, high interest rate and a looming recession.

3. The conventional wisdom was to sell the stocks, take loss and wait for a better time to reinvest.

4. I took a contrarian view for the following reasons:

a) The stock prices had already fallen to reflect the negative prospects

b) Some stocks are grossly undervalued, while the companies remain profitable.

c) China was reopening its economy by relaxing its covid restrictions.

5. I remained heavily invested in China stocks and in Tesla stock (which had dropped 70% from its peak).

6. My invested stocks performed well during the past month. From a portfolio loss of $400,000 six month ago, it has now turned into a portfolio gain of nearly $400,000. (I would have missed this turnaround, if I had cut loss a few months ago.)

7. The investment climate will remain uncertain going forward. I do not like US stocks (apart from Tesla), as they are still overvalued.

8. I still hold a few US growth stocks that have dropped 80% in value and contributed to a loss of $300,000 USD. Fortunately, they have a strong cash position to last a few years. I will wait for their recovery.

9. A large portion of my portfolio is invested in China stocks with an average PE ratio of 6 times, and a dividend yield of 7%. They are undervalued. If the stock prices fall, I can collect the dividends.

Tan Kin Lian