Skip Navigation Links
Invest in Gilead Science or Moderna
12 Jun 2021 (275 views)

One year ago, I had to decide between investing $60,000 USD in Gilead Science or Moderna.

I choose Gilead Science. The stock price dropped 30% over the past year.

If I had selected Moderna, I would have made a gain of over 250%. I made a bad choice. 

Why did I choose Gilead Science?

- Gilead Science owns the drug remdesivir, which was already approved for treatment of covid-19. It had a revenue stream from other drugs and a good earning stream.

- Moderna was developing a covid vaccine in competition with many other drug companies. It was showing a big financial loss from its operations.

What was my mistake?

I overlooked the fact that the market size for the vaccine was several times of the global population. Every person has to be vaccinated with two doses, sometimes more. The market size is more than 10 billion doses. All the manufacturers together could not produce enough vaccine to meet the needs.

The number of severely sick patients that needed to be treated with remdesivir is small - maybe less than a few hundred thousands. Furthermore, it was later found that the remdesivir drug was only partially effective in treating the patients. It reduced the recovery period by a few days. The benefit does not justify the high cost of the drugs.

It was a good lesson.

Tan Kin Lian


Invest in Gilead Science or Moderna
[Back] [Print]


One year ago, I had to decide between investing $60,000 USD in Gilead Science or Moderna.

I choose Gilead Science. The stock price dropped 30% over the past year.

If I had selected Moderna, I would have made a gain of over 250%. I made a bad choice. 

Why did I choose Gilead Science?

- Gilead Science owns the drug remdesivir, which was already approved for treatment of covid-19. It had a revenue stream from other drugs and a good earning stream.

- Moderna was developing a covid vaccine in competition with many other drug companies. It was showing a big financial loss from its operations.

What was my mistake?

I overlooked the fact that the market size for the vaccine was several times of the global population. Every person has to be vaccinated with two doses, sometimes more. The market size is more than 10 billion doses. All the manufacturers together could not produce enough vaccine to meet the needs.

The number of severely sick patients that needed to be treated with remdesivir is small - maybe less than a few hundred thousands. Furthermore, it was later found that the remdesivir drug was only partially effective in treating the patients. It reduced the recovery period by a few days. The benefit does not justify the high cost of the drugs.

It was a good lesson.

Tan Kin Lian